For most of the commercial enterprise world, Oracle will still be a leader in the database. Just like IBM is still running the POS in your local supermarket and Mainframes are still on the backend of most banks. The cost of changing traditional proven technology is high.
For the government, I think they will still use an Oracle database. Oracle database right now has some of the best security and auditing features that other databases don’t really have right now. I do think that other databases could compete with them, but right now the security features for Oracle databases are really good.
However, I don’t think it’s going to remain the dominant player in databases and database management. Oracle was very late to the cloud and, from every indication, their cloud offering is not really outstanding. Most organizations are going to a hybrid approach between cloud and local, while some are going cloud-only. Only a very few organizations will remain local-only in the future. Starting from behind on the cloud, which is extremely fast-moving, is likely to condemn Oracle in the long run. We’re seeing lots of shift away from Oracle by various organizations. Amazon, for example, just retired a major portion of their Oracle implementation. Other organizations are making the shift to AWS, Azure, Google, and Alibaba away from Oracle.